Tag: iPredict

iPredict: Key To Win Fourth Election, Hand Over To Bennet

IPREDICT LTD NEW ZEALAND WEEKLY ECONOMIC & POLITICAL UPDATE Friday 19 June 2015 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE www.ipredict.co.nz KEY TO WIN FOURTH ELECTION BUT HAND OVER TO BENNETT BY END OF 2017 John Key is expected to win an historic fourth term but then hand over the prime ministership to Paula Bennett by the end of 2017, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. All current ministers expect trade minister Tim Groser are expected to remain ministers until the end of the year, with Murray McCully and Nick Smith currently the most vulnerable. Judith Collins is expected to be re-appointed a minister before the next election. Growth and unemployment forecasts have worsened and two cuts to the Official Cash Rate are expected by the end of the year. Andrew Little appears safe as leader of the Labour Party. New Zealand Politics: • John Key is expected to remain National leader until the end of 2016 (89% probability, steady compared with last week) and has just a 69% probability of being National leader on Nomination Day (up from 48% last week). Mr Key has just a 17% probability of remaining National leader until the end of 2017 (down from 19% last week) • Paula Bennett remains the favourite to become National Party leader if a vacancy arises (35%, down from 38% last...

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iPredict New Zealand Weekly Economic & Political Update

Press Release – iPredict Budget Boosts National And Key, But PM Still Expected to Retire by End of 2017iPredict LTD New Zealand Weekly Economic & Political Update Monday 25 May 2015 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE www.ipredict.co.nz Budget Boosts National And Key, But PM Still Expected to Retire by End of 2017 Last week’s New Zealand Budget has boosted the ruling National Party and its leader John Key, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. National has a 61% probability of leading the next government, despite Winston Peters’ NZ First Party now leaning towards Labour. After a dip following the so-called “ponytailgate” affair, Mr Key now has an 82% chance of remaining leader of his party through to the end of 2016 and nearly a 50% probability ofleading it into the election campaign. There is however just a 15% probability he will remain leader of the National Party and prime minister through to the end of 2017, with Paula Bennett favoured to replace him, ahead of Judith Collins. The tax on capital gains announced last week appears to have had no short-term effect, with forecast Auckland house prices up again this week. The Official Cash Rate is now expected to be cut twice by the end of October, faster than last week’s forecast that the second cut would not occur until December....

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New Zealand Weekly Economic & Political Update

Press Release – iPredict The Official Cash Rate will be cut on 11 June and again by 10 December , according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealands predictions market, iPredict. Despite this, annual inflation is not expected to reach 2% until …New Zealand Weekly Economic & Political Update www.ipredict.co.nz TWO INTEREST RATE CUTS EXPECTED THIS YEAR The Official Cash Rate will be cut on 11 June and again by 10 December, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. Despite this, annual inflation is not expected to reach 2% until the September 2016 quarter at the earliest. The government’s new tax on capital gains appears to have reduced forecast house price inflation somewhat, but the average Auckland house price is still expected to increase from $809,200 in April to $814,337 in May, $818,475 in June and $829,560 in July. Kevin Hague is expected to be the next male co-leader of the Greens and National is expected to lead the next government with the support of NZ First, although there is now only an 11% probability John Key will still be prime minister by the end of 2017, with Paula Bennett favoured to replace him as National Party leader. New Zealand Politics: • John Key is expected to remain National leader until the end of 2016...

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Average Auckland House to Reach $821,335 by End of June

Press Release – iPredict IPREDICT LTD NEW ZEALAND WEEKLY ECONOMIC & POLITICAL UPDATE Wednesday 13 May 2015 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE www.ipredict.co.nz Average Auckland House to Reach $821,335 by End of June The average Auckland house price is expected to rise by 0.88% in May …IPREDICT LTD NEW ZEALAND WEEKLY ECONOMIC & POLITICAL UPDATE Wednesday 13 May 2015 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE www.ipredict.co.nz Average Auckland House to Reach $821,335 by End of June The average Auckland house price is expected to rise by 0.88% in May to $816,302 and by a further 0.62% in June to $821,335, or $1393 a week over two months, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. The Official Cash Rate is now expected to be cut on 23 July and then again on 9 June 2016. Inflation forecasts are up fractionally, but it is still expected to remain below 1.5% through to the middle of next year. Dreams the New Zealand dollar might reach parity with the Australian dollar have almost entirely vanished. James Shaw is now expected to be the next male co-leader of the Green Party. Winston Peters is expected to hold the balance of power after the next election and back a National-led government. Chuka Umunna is expected to be the next leader of the UK Labour Party. New Zealand Politics: • John Key...

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John Key to Quit Before Next Election – iPredict

Press Release – iPredict New Zealand will have a female National Party prime minister before the next general election, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealands predictions market, iPredict. John Key is expected to quit as the partys …John Key to Quit Before Next Election New Zealand will have a female National Party prime minister before the next general election, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. John Key is expected to quit as the party’s leaderin 2017 before the start of the election campaign. Paula Bennett is the favourite to be replace him, with 37% probability, followed by Judith Collins on 19%. NZ First has a 66% probability of holding the balance of power after the next election and is expected to back National, which now has a 60% probability of leading the next government. The average Auckland house price is expected to reach $814,319 in May with the Official Cash Rate picked to be cut on or before 10 September. CPI forecasts are up marginally but inflation is still expected to remain below the Reserve Bank’s 2% midpoint target until the end of the June 2016 quarter. There is now almost no chance New Zealand will sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2015. David Cameron is narrowly expected to remain UK prime minister...

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