Tag: Statistics

New Zealand Weekly Economic & Political Update

Press Release – iPredict The Official Cash Rate will be cut on 11 June and again by 10 December , according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealands predictions market, iPredict. Despite this, annual inflation is not expected to reach 2% until …New Zealand Weekly Economic & Political Update www.ipredict.co.nz TWO INTEREST RATE CUTS EXPECTED THIS YEAR The Official Cash Rate will be cut on 11 June and again by 10 December, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. Despite this, annual inflation is not expected to reach 2% until the September 2016 quarter at the earliest. The government’s new tax on capital gains appears to have reduced forecast house price inflation somewhat, but the average Auckland house price is still expected to increase from $809,200 in April to $814,337 in May, $818,475 in June and $829,560 in July. Kevin Hague is expected to be the next male co-leader of the Greens and National is expected to lead the next government with the support of NZ First, although there is now only an 11% probability John Key will still be prime minister by the end of 2017, with Paula Bennett favoured to replace him as National Party leader. New Zealand Politics: • John Key is expected to remain National leader until the end of 2016...

Read More

John Key to Quit Before Next Election – iPredict

Press Release – iPredict New Zealand will have a female National Party prime minister before the next general election, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealands predictions market, iPredict. John Key is expected to quit as the partys …John Key to Quit Before Next Election New Zealand will have a female National Party prime minister before the next general election, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. John Key is expected to quit as the party’s leaderin 2017 before the start of the election campaign. Paula Bennett is the favourite to be replace him, with 37% probability, followed by Judith Collins on 19%. NZ First has a 66% probability of holding the balance of power after the next election and is expected to back National, which now has a 60% probability of leading the next government. The average Auckland house price is expected to reach $814,319 in May with the Official Cash Rate picked to be cut on or before 10 September. CPI forecasts are up marginally but inflation is still expected to remain below the Reserve Bank’s 2% midpoint target until the end of the June 2016 quarter. There is now almost no chance New Zealand will sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2015. David Cameron is narrowly expected to remain UK prime minister...

Read More

iPredict New Zealand Weekly Economic & Political Update

Press Release – iPredict TV3s Campbell Live appears doomed, with a 77% probability it will be cancelled before 1 January 2016 , according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealands predictions market, iPredict. John Keys position as …iPredict New Zealand Weekly Economic & Political Update Campbell Live Doomed TV3’s Campbell Live appears doomed, with a 77% probability it will be cancelled before 1 January 2016, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. John Key’s position as leader of the National Party and his party’s chances of winning a fourth term with the support of NZ First have edged up, while Labour leader Andrew Little’s political prospects have edged down. Kevin Hague remains strongly favoured to be the next male co-leader of the Green Party. The Official Cash Rate is expected to be cut by the end of the year while the fiscal deficit in 2014/15 is now expected to be 0.28% of GDP. In the United States, Hillary Clinton has an 87% probability of being the Democratic nominee for president in 2016 and a 52% probability of being the next president. New Zealand Politics: • John Key is expected to remain National leader until at least the end of 2016 (90% probability, up from 85% last week) but has just a 37% probability of remaining...

Read More

iPredict: Inflationary Expectations Fall Significantly

Column – iPredict Both inflationary and interest-rate expectations have fallen significantly over the last week, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealands predictions market, iPredict.iPredict Ltd: New Zealand Weekly Economic & Political Update: 5 December 2014 Inflationary Expectations Fall Significantly Both inflationary and interest-rate expectations have fallen significantly over the last week, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. Annual inflation is now expected to be only 0.8% in the September 2014 quarter and only 1.0% in the December 2014 quarter, while the Official Cash Rate is not expected to reach 3.75% until October next year. Short-term forecasts for GDP and the fiscal balance have both eased slightly. John Key’s position as leader of the National Party has weakened marginally but he is still strongly expected to lead his party into the next election year, forecast to be 2017, and National’s chances of winning the next election have risen marginally to 55%. Judith Collins’ chances of returning to Cabinet before the election have eased. Politics: John Key is expected to remain National leader until at least the end of 2016 (70% probability, down from 73% last week) and has a 44% probability of remaining National leader until at least the end of 2017 (down from 47% last week) Paula Bennett is again favourite to...

Read More

iPredict Election Update: Maori Party in serious trouble

Press Release – iPredict Maori Party in serious trouble, with 57% chance of leaving Parliament Combined Labour/Green vote rises Conservatives up at expense of NZ First, but not expected to win seat National now expected to win Palmerston North and Waimakariri, and …IPREDICT LTD 2014 ELECTION UPDATE #25 Tuesday 8 July 2014 www.ipredict.co.nz Key Points: • Maori Party in serious trouble, with 57% chance of leaving Parliament • Combined Labour/Green vote rises • Conservatives up at expense of NZ First, but not expected to win seat • National now expected to win Palmerston North and Waimakariri, and Labour to hold Port Hills and Te Atatu • NZ First to hold balance of power unless Conservatives win seat, and expected to back National • John Allen safe as MFAT boss until September Commentary: For the first time, the combined wisdom of iPredict’s 7000 registered traders is that the Maori Party will leave parliament after the election on 20 September, with its expected party vote dwindling below 1%, a big slump in its chances of winning Wairariki and a new high of 57% probability that it will win no electorate seats. The combined Labour/Green vote has improved over the last week and the Conservative Party has also gained ground, apparently at the expense of NZ First. Nevertheless, NZ First is still expected to hold the balance of power and decide whether...

Read More