What If the Future Doesn’t Unfold as It Should?

Article – Professor Bruce Muirhead There has been talk in the media of milk prices slowly increasing over the rest of this year and into 2016. Dairy farmers in New Zealand, or so the mantra goes, can then heave a sigh of relief and get on with the business of making money. What If the Future Doesn’t Unfold as It Should? Bruce Muirhead There has been talk in the media of milk prices slowly increasing over the rest of this year and into 2016. Dairy farmers in New Zealand, or so the mantra goes, can then heave a sigh of relief and get on with the business of making money. But what if the global dairy situation has changed fundamentally, and the lower prices we see today become the norm tomorrow? Certainly some things have shifted that might suggest that. Europe got rid of quotas on 1 April 2015, a move that was applauded in New Zealand. I have never understood why it was met with such NZ equanimity. The country wanted to encourage more foreign competition? If that is the case, then ideology triumphed over common sense. To my mind, Wellington should have been keen to keep EU quotas in place and thereby face less competition. And what of the US? The TTP negotiations were supposed to give NZ dairy much better access to the American market. Does...

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