Tag: Gambling

iPredict: Inflationary Expectations Fall Significantly

Column – iPredict Both inflationary and interest-rate expectations have fallen significantly over the last week, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealands predictions market, iPredict.iPredict Ltd: New Zealand Weekly Economic & Political Update: 5 December 2014 Inflationary Expectations Fall Significantly Both inflationary and interest-rate expectations have fallen significantly over the last week, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. Annual inflation is now expected to be only 0.8% in the September 2014 quarter and only 1.0% in the December 2014 quarter, while the Official Cash Rate is not expected to reach 3.75% until October next year. Short-term forecasts for GDP and the fiscal balance have both eased slightly. John Key’s position as leader of the National Party has weakened marginally but he is still strongly expected to lead his party into the next election year, forecast to be 2017, and National’s chances of winning the next election have risen marginally to 55%. Judith Collins’ chances of returning to Cabinet before the election have eased. Politics: John Key is expected to remain National leader until at least the end of 2016 (70% probability, down from 73% last week) and has a 44% probability of remaining National leader until at least the end of 2017 (down from 47% last week) Paula Bennett is again favourite to...

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iPredict: Little Expected to Be Elected Labour Leader

Column – iPredict The probability Andrew Little will be elected leader of the Labour Party on Tuesday has improved again, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealands predictions market, iPredict. Mr Little now has a 71% chance of …iPredict Ltd New Zealand Weekly Economic & Political Update Little Expected to Be Elected Labour Leader on Tuesday 13 November 2014 www.ipredict.co.nz The probability Andrew Little will be elected leader of the Labour Party on Tuesday has improved again, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. Mr Little now has a 71% chance of being elected. There is a 60% probability his deputy will be one of Jacinda Ardern, Nanaia Mahuta or Annette King. Paula Bennett is now favourite to be the next National Party leader although John Key remains picked to lead his party into 2017 and National is narrowly expected to win the election that year. There has been a small improvement in the forecast unemployment rate and current account deficit for the December quarter and for the prospects a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement will be ratified by the US Congress by 1 July 2017. Politics: Next Labour Leader expected to be: Andrew Little: 71% probability (up from 69% probability last week) Grant Robertson: 24% probability (down from 26% last week) David Parker: 5%...

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iPredict Ltd 2014 Election Update #19: 30 May 2014

Column – iPredict Prime Minister John Key remains on track to secure a third term in Government, according to the combined wisdom of the 7000 registered traders on New Zealands online predictions market, iPredict. National would, however, require the support of all three of its …iPredict Ltd 2014 Election Update #19: 30 May 2014 www.ipredict.co.nz Key Points: • Internet Mana forecast to win 3 seats • National expected to sneak in with minor parties’ support • Tight race in Waiariki and Palmerston North, while Labour now favoured to win Hamilton East • Growth and unemployment expectations unchanged • Probability of fiscal surplus in 2014/15 falls Commentary: Prime Minister John Key remains on track to secure a third term in Government, according to the combined wisdom of the 7000 registered traders on New Zealand’s online predictions market, iPredict. National would, however, require the support of all three of its current support parties – ACT, UnitedFuture and the Maori Party – in order to be able to govern without having to rely on Winston Peters’ NZ First Party. Following the announcement of a formal alliance between the Mana and Internet parties, the combined Internet Mana Party is now forecast to win 3 seats. Despite this, a coalition involving Labour, Green, NZ First, Internet Mana and the Maori Party would still be short of the 61 seats required to govern. Palmerston North...

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iPredict Ltd 2014 Election Update #15

Column – iPredict iPredicts 7000 registered traders continue to believe Winston Peters NZ First party will hold the balance of power after the election and allow National to govern. There has been a small gain to Act and the Conservatives over the last week and a … iPredict Ltd 2014 Election Update #15 24 April 2014 www.ipredict.co.nz Key Points: • Inflation and interest rate expectations ease marginally • 31% probability Helen Clark will become UN Secretary General • Ruth Dyson in trouble in Port Hills • Act gains over last week with 3 MPs now forecast • Conservatives’ chanced edge up in East Coast Bays • Mana/Internet would win 3 MPs • NZ First to hold balance of power and allow National to govern Commentary: iPredict’s 7000 registered traders continue to believe Winston Peters’ NZ First party will hold the balance of power after the election and allow National to govern. There has been a small gain to Act and the Conservatives over the last week and a weakening of the Maori Party’s position. A Mana/Internet electoral arrangement is expected to give the parties 3 MPs. Port Hills has become the most marginal seat in the country followed by Hamilton East. Inflation and interest rate expectations have eased. Economic Context Growth expectations have eased fractionally again this week. Growth in the March 2014 quarter is expected to be 1.0%...

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National’s veto power makes SkyCity deal dirtier

Press Release – Green Party SkyCity deal documents show how the National Government ignored warnings about the damage its dirty deal with SkyCity would do and instead, focused on getting itself the power to block groups it doesnt like from using the convention centre, Green … 18 July 2013 National’s veto power makes SkyCity deal dirtier SkyCity deal documents show how the National Government ignored warnings about the damage its dirty deal with SkyCity would do and instead, focused on getting itself the power to block groups it doesn’t like from using the convention centre, Green Party gambling spokesperson Denise Roche said today. Documents released yesterday reveal how SkyCity and the Government wrangled over what kind of right the Crown would have to block events that it didn’t like from being held at the New Zealand International Convention Centre (NZICC). The final agreement gives the Government a veto right over events at the NZICC that it considers could be “materially prejudicial” to New Zealand’s international relations or national security or the NZICC’s brand, or are simply deemed not to be of a suitable “type and style” for the NZICC. “The records of the negotiations show that National didn’t care about inflicting gambling harm on thousands of New Zealand families as a result of its dirty deal, but it put a lot of effort into making sure it can ban...

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